Saturday, May 7, 2011

Kentucky Derby 2011


Bill Troesch wagered $100 that Nehro will finish in the top three in today's Kentucky Derby, basing his bet on the colt's hard-charging, second-place effort in last month's Arkansas Derby.
“I thought he came home pretty strong in his last race,” said Troesch, who also added Dialed In to his Kentucky Oaks-Derby wager.
The betting public agreed with Troesch, choosing Dialed In as the 9-2 favorite and Nehro as the 7-1 co-second choice as wagering closed at Churchill Downs on Friday night.
Twice the Appeal, who started the day at 20-1, finished at 7-1. Pants On Fire was the fourth choice, at 9-1.
Myke Humphrey, who said he has attended every Derby since 1978 and picked 15 winners, made his bets based on his “complicated system” — a homemade computer program that determines the top horses based on factors from post position to breeding.
Humphrey's program selected Twice the Appeal, who's ridden by three-time Derby winner Calvin Borel, and Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch, so he coupled them in a $700 exacta box.
Archarcharch slipped slightly from oddsmaker Mike Battaglia's 10-1 morning line, finishing the day at 13-1. The colt is seeking to become the first horse since Ferdinand in 1986 to win the Derby from the No. 1 post position.
“I'm hoping that he can overcome that somehow,” Humphrey said. “Maybe break out of the gate, go wide a little bit, maybe let horses go on the inside.”
Repole Stable's decision to scratch Uncle Mo Friday eliminated a horse some bettors believed may have ended up as the favorite.
Michael Blowen, a founder of the Old Friends Equine horse retirement home, invested $32 in exacta and trifecta bets with one constant — Master of Hounds, who started at 30-1 and was at 18-1 Friday night.
“I thought Uncle Mo towered over this field, and once you get past Uncle Mo everything else being equal, this horse has run against some nice horses,” Blowen said.
Besides Master of Hounds, Twinspired was among the horses that got a boost from the betting public. The colt, whose ownership group includes employees of a Louisville investment firm, finished at 21-1 after starting at 30-1.
As race fans began emptying Churchill Downs, Bostonian Elio Imbornone said he was still set on Dialed In as his Derby pick.
“I've followed the horse from the start, and the thought of having a Kentucky Derby winner come from maybe 15 lengths behind is pretty exciting,” he said.
His wife, Jessica, likes Comma to the Top, for another reason.
“Honestly,” she said, “I think it's because of the name.”

Share/Bookmark