Even as Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) initially resisted pressure from leaders in Washington to resign, Democrats back home had begun to look past him. But with Wu relenting Tuesday and announcing his resignation from Congress, the race to succeed him in the historically Democratic district has taken on new urgency.
Gov. John Kitzhaber gets to set the date for a special election. If he schedules it for more than 80 days after Wu officially resigns, candidates will be nominated in party primaries. If the special election is set for less than 80 days after the resignation, candidates will be nominated by conventions of party officials. Both times Kitzhaber has previously set special election dates, he’s opted to allow a public primary, and political watchers are expecting the same this time.
State Rep. Brad Witt is also in the race, but he doesn’t enjoy the same home base that Avakian and Bonamici do in the district’s critical battleground of Washington County.
“This district is won or lost in Washington County,” said Jim Ross, a longtime Democratic strategist whose firm ran then-Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s successful reelection campaign in 2008.
Now that a special election has been triggered, more candidates are certain to take a closer look at the race.
“There are a lot of talented Democrats in this district, people in the business community, and we may see a self-funder emerge,” Bergstein said.
Republicans may also choose to compete more seriously but will remain at a big disadvantage in a district that both George W. Bush and John McCain lost badly. And local business and organized labor interests are sure to be quickly mobilized.
“Wu still being in the race had kind of frozen the field,” Ross said. “All these institutional players didn’t want to get involved, but they weren’t supporting Wu, either. Everything’s in play now.”
Avakian already has a significant head start in fundraising and political infrastructure against Bonamici and Witt. Avakian raised almost $200,000 in his first quarter as a candidate and has racked up a long list of endorsements from local elected officials.
A special election — and the accelerated campaign that comes with it — almost certainly magnifies Avakian’s early advantage.
“The fact is that he already has a campaign team, he’s already raised $200,000, he has good name ID, so a short special election is very much in his favor,” Ross said. “That said, I think there are a lot of potential candidates who can close that gap very quickly.”
Avakian had been particularly vocal in calling for Wu’s resignation and said he deserves credit over late entrants to the race for being willing to campaign while the incumbent was still in the picture.
“I understand the plight that average Oregonians and the rest of our country are facing today,” Witt told POLITICO. “I have been a longtime proponent of business, economic and workforce development.”
Bonamici could not be reached for comment. If the nominee for a special election is chosen by a party convention instead of a primary, all bets could be off.
“In a convention you could really get a wild card. It’s all party activists. Those are really tough to control,” Ross said.
Party leaders said a race in which more candidates can emerge is still wide open.
“It’s way to early to tell,” said Karen Packer, the Democratic chairwoman in Washington County. “Certainly Brad Avakian had an early head start. But it’s anybody’s game.”
Even before Wu relented to demands that he resign, a string of embarrassing incidents had already put a final stamp on a career long marked by political isolation — the first Chinese-American elected to Congress, in 1998, much of his financial support came from Asian communities outside his district. Allegations of a 1976 rape, in which no criminal charges were ever filed, surfaced in 2004. Just before last year’s election — in which he won a seventh term — he began behaving erratically, at one point sending a picture of himself in a tiger costume to staffers.
Details of this behavior didn’t emerge until after the election. Several staffers, including his chief of staff, resigned earlier this year, Wu acknowledged that he accepted painkillers from a campaign donor and a report surfaced about an incident last year in which he crashed into a parked car.
“He’ll be remembered as a quirky character who held that seat, but he won’t go down as someone who had a tremendous impact on the state or in the delegation,” Bergstein said.
Gov. John Kitzhaber gets to set the date for a special election. If he schedules it for more than 80 days after Wu officially resigns, candidates will be nominated in party primaries. If the special election is set for less than 80 days after the resignation, candidates will be nominated by conventions of party officials. Both times Kitzhaber has previously set special election dates, he’s opted to allow a public primary, and political watchers are expecting the same this time.
Either way, Democratic insiders are already pointing to two front-runners: state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, who has already been preparing a primary challenge for months, and state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici, who hasn’t declared her candidacy but is widely expected to run.
“They’ll be two very well-organized campaigns,” said Len Bergstein, a Democratic lobbyist in the state. “It will be a very highly competitive race.”State Rep. Brad Witt is also in the race, but he doesn’t enjoy the same home base that Avakian and Bonamici do in the district’s critical battleground of Washington County.
“This district is won or lost in Washington County,” said Jim Ross, a longtime Democratic strategist whose firm ran then-Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s successful reelection campaign in 2008.
Now that a special election has been triggered, more candidates are certain to take a closer look at the race.
“There are a lot of talented Democrats in this district, people in the business community, and we may see a self-funder emerge,” Bergstein said.
Republicans may also choose to compete more seriously but will remain at a big disadvantage in a district that both George W. Bush and John McCain lost badly. And local business and organized labor interests are sure to be quickly mobilized.
“Wu still being in the race had kind of frozen the field,” Ross said. “All these institutional players didn’t want to get involved, but they weren’t supporting Wu, either. Everything’s in play now.”
Avakian already has a significant head start in fundraising and political infrastructure against Bonamici and Witt. Avakian raised almost $200,000 in his first quarter as a candidate and has racked up a long list of endorsements from local elected officials.
A special election — and the accelerated campaign that comes with it — almost certainly magnifies Avakian’s early advantage.
Avakian had been particularly vocal in calling for Wu’s resignation and said he deserves credit over late entrants to the race for being willing to campaign while the incumbent was still in the picture.
“I made the decision it was important to challenge David Wu months ago because of his ineffectiveness and the inappropriate things he did,” Avakian said. “I think a lot of people have already made up their minds, and they’ve jumped onto our campaign. … I can hit the ground running in Congress on jobs and the economy like nobody else in this race.”
Witt had stopped short of calling for Wu’s resignation, saying only that Wu should step aside if the latest allegations were true. He said his economic message would resonate.“I understand the plight that average Oregonians and the rest of our country are facing today,” Witt told POLITICO. “I have been a longtime proponent of business, economic and workforce development.”
Bonamici could not be reached for comment. If the nominee for a special election is chosen by a party convention instead of a primary, all bets could be off.
“In a convention you could really get a wild card. It’s all party activists. Those are really tough to control,” Ross said.
Party leaders said a race in which more candidates can emerge is still wide open.
“It’s way to early to tell,” said Karen Packer, the Democratic chairwoman in Washington County. “Certainly Brad Avakian had an early head start. But it’s anybody’s game.”
Even before Wu relented to demands that he resign, a string of embarrassing incidents had already put a final stamp on a career long marked by political isolation — the first Chinese-American elected to Congress, in 1998, much of his financial support came from Asian communities outside his district. Allegations of a 1976 rape, in which no criminal charges were ever filed, surfaced in 2004. Just before last year’s election — in which he won a seventh term — he began behaving erratically, at one point sending a picture of himself in a tiger costume to staffers.
Details of this behavior didn’t emerge until after the election. Several staffers, including his chief of staff, resigned earlier this year, Wu acknowledged that he accepted painkillers from a campaign donor and a report surfaced about an incident last year in which he crashed into a parked car.
“He’ll be remembered as a quirky character who held that seat, but he won’t go down as someone who had a tremendous impact on the state or in the delegation,” Bergstein said.
